Consumers want instant gratification

Greg Linden has a great post summarizing a talk that Marissa Mayer of Google gave at the recent Web 2.0 conference.  I encourage you to read it because Marissa talks about how Google ran a user test where users wanted more search results.  Surprisingly, traffic and revenue dropped by 20% and what Marissa discovered was that load times for less searches was .4 seconds and load times with more searches was .9 seconds.  Despite the fact that users really wanted more results, in the end, according to Marissa and Greg, speed matters. 

This makes total sense.  In the broadband world we live in today, the Internet is about instant gratification.  I could argue that one of the reasons YouTube exploded on to the scene (besides the fact that it had every copyrighted video out there on its site) is because of its use of Flash – no download and instant gratification right in the web browser.  It sounds simple but it is true.  There are many vectors that you can optimize with respect to consumer experience but take it from Marissa and Greg that in the end, users want instant gratification.  In my mind what instant gratification really means is speed and ease of use.  It has to load fast and it has to be easy.  This is about reducing friction for users to experience your service and reducing the friction for you to generate revenue.  Remember no matter how many extra bells and whistles you add, don’t forget that speed and ease of use really matters.

CBS going early

As I wrote early last year, my perspective is that one must go early, go late, or go home to make money in the venture market.  Given that we at Dawntreader have always been early, that is where we will continue to focus.  What is interesting is that on the heels of the new seed funding plan that Charles River Ventures recently announced, CBS just brought in an Allen & Co deal maker to head up its Interactive division with an eye on going early as well.  As Quincy Smith, new CBS head, said in a Reuters interview, "I’m looking for the next YouTube, only a year earlier, when they were 1/32nd of their size, without building out stuff that we would find duplicative like sales force. The core engineering team is always important."  Of course, what he is also saying is that he also does not want to pay exorbitant prices for companies that he could have found earlier. 

While CBS has certainly put some dollars and focus behind this "going early" effort, it is not lost on a number of media companies that I have met with in New York recently.  All of them are looking to invest and buy startups before they get too big.  As you all know, commoditization means it is extremely cheap to get a web business started and build an audience.  Since the inflection points for startups occur much sooner and on much less capital, missing that first round means you have to pay up to get involved.  Paying up means it significantly increases the bar for success and the risk of your investment or acquisition failing.  According to the PaidContent post today, "On the making deals side, it sounds like he’s in sync with Moonves, who has said the company won’t be making major digital acquisitions."  All of this is to say that Rupert Murdoch made a ballsy bet when he bought MySpace and paid the price that he did – no one else moved as quickly or as emphatically. 

In theory it sounds great – spread around a number of smaller bets instead of making a bet-the-farm acquisition like a Facebook. And  I am sure that CBS will see a ton of great entrepreneurs, but the question is whether or not CBS, a traditional media company, can identify the right companies and add significant value to drive them to success.  Early stage investing is not easy and neither is acquiring a couple of entrepreneurs working out of someone’s apartment.  Success for CBS will come down to execution as it will really be competing with technology companies like Google and Yahoo (take a look at a discussion we had at Kinnernet in April about this topic) who have a better pedigree and track record of buying pre-venture-backed companies and making them successful.  If you throw in the inevitable friction that will be created between the new and old media side of CBS, it will be interesting to see how this strategy evolves.  Regardless, more capital and more exit opportunities is great for entrepreneurs.

Utility computing for the web and startups

There is a great BusinessWeek article outlining Amazon’s ambition to be a utility for web businesses.  This reminds me of a conversation I had last month with a founder and former CTO of one our of our prior portfolio companies who said his goal was to have a highly successful SAAS play with 1 operations guy instead of 20.  When I asked him how he would do it, he quite simply said Amazon – Amazon EC2 (Elastic Compute Cloud) and Amazon S3 for storage.  Sure, I had heard about this before when Amazon launched it during the summer, but what really got me thinking was that here was a guy who had been there and done it – scaled a SAAS business to incredible numbers and he had been playing around with Amazon’s infrastructure and was willing to offload a majority of his new startup’s business on the Amazon infrastructure.  When we talk about the commoditization of technology and how cheap it is to launch a new business on the web, we think open source and commodity servers. Now think about being able to launch a new web-based business and only paying for what you use.  If it takes you awhile to scale you don’t have to burn alot of capital upfront and only pay for minimal usage.  If you are hugely successful, then you don’t get caught with your pants down because you have the opportunity to quickly load a few more virtualized images on the Amazon EC2 infrastructure and pay more for that usage – bandwidth, storage, and compute time.  Think about it –  the upfront cost of starting a new web-based business if you went the Amazon route (when it is ready for primetime) has been driven down another order of magnitude as you can get started with little to no capital expenditures. The numbers are pretty incredible too – $0.15c per GB per month for storage or $150 per terabyte per month, $0.20c per GB for bandwidth, and the use of a pretty standard server (1.7Ghz x86 processor, 1.75GB of RAM, 160GB of local disk, and 250Mb/s of network bandwidth) for $0.10c per hour or $72 per server per month.  Not too bad when you think that you can scale up or scale down pretty easily.  It will be interesting to see how many startups look to use the Amazon infrastructure after it gets more publicized at the Web 2.0 conference.  As a startup, your job is to allocate your scarce resources as efficiently as possible – time and money.  If you can stretch either of these and give your company more of an opportunity to hit critical milestones or get better product out the door, then it is a huge win for you to spend your dollars on making that happen, rather than on capital equipment.

When competitors are acquired…Socialtext and Jotspot

In an earlier post titled "When Competitors are acquired" I discussed that rather than sulk and wish it were you who was bought, smart companies will go out and capitalize on the opportunity as their competition is temporarily distracted and inwardly focused on creating synergies.  Rather than comment on the whys of the Google Jotspot deal, I would rather point out what smart competitors like Ross Mayfield of Socialtext are doing to capitalize on the deal.  As mentioned in his blog post:

Socialtext, the first wiki company, announced today a free hosted wiki program for JotSpot customers following that company’s acquisition by Google. Socialtext will migrate JotSpot wiki content and provide one year of Socialtext Professional hosted wiki service to any JotSpot customer who signs up by the end of November 2006. While most JotSpot customers are small-to-midsized businesses, this offer is extended to deployments of any size.

Who knows whether or not Ross’ program will be ultimately successful but I certainly applaud his efforts for being aggressive and moving quickly on the deal.  For what it is worth, I have used both services in the past and while Socialtext was certainly more powerful and flexible, I found Jotspot incredibly easy to use.  As i have mentioned repeatedly, reducing the barrier or friction to usage is incredibly important on the web and can be a make or break issue for your business.  As Ross says, while Socialtext (higher end) and Jotspot (lower end) are clearly going after different segments of the market, it seems that Jotspot’s vision to go after the lower end and help the power user with an incredibly easy to use service won the day for Google, as it continues to expand its efforts to take on portions of Microsoft’s business.

Dual mode phones – convergence of cellular and wifi

I have seen the future of VOIP and it is not about making calls from a headset on my computer or buying a new VOIP phone to carry around with me – it is seamless integration of VOIP with your existing cell phone, it is one device which gives you the flexibility to make calls on either network depending on coverage,reception, and cost, it is the new Nokia N80 dual mode phoneNokian80about I just got a demo phone last week from my portfolio company, Sipphone (developers of Gizmo Project), who happens to be the VOIP service provider for these devices.  Sure, there are some kinks to work out, but what is great is that the Internet calling is seamlessly integrated into the user experience.  Take a look – when I dial a number I have the opportunity to either make a regular cell call or internet call.  I don’t have to go to a separate application on my phone, I just make a call – it is that simple.  Scr27sm_3 Even better is the integration of the service with my existing Gizmo Project desktop client.  When a contact makes a Gizmo-Gizmo call and if I am logged into the existing wifi network on my Nokia N80, my phone rings. I can choose to take the call on my device instead of being locked at my desk.  I have my regular cell number and my online identity all on one device.  This is truly disruptive technology and is just the beginning of what I believe is going to be a myriad of devices offered by manufacturers which will integrate cellular and wifi.  While TMobile’s annoucement last week is a great step in this direction, it is still based on only using TMobile’s special router and their existing hotspots and cellular service.  In other words, it is closed and not an open opportunity for customers to use whatever VOIP service or wifi network.  As we all know our handsets are minicomputers so why not be able to make regular cellular calls but also take our music, pictures, video, and even our online identity with us all the time?  As wifi networks proliferate and as more features get built into the N80 and other new devices like presence and VOIP over wifi people will truly have no boundaries to reach their friends and colleagues anytime and anywhere at minimal cost. By the way, notice the VIdeo Call icon on the screen shot above – that is going to happen sooner than you think, especially for wifi-to-wifi but also depending on the 3G bandwidth of your current cellular carrier. 

Where are your sales boulders and how are you going to move them?

I had 2 board meetings last week, and it seemed that we spent a fair amount of time digging into each company’s sales process, understanding and mapping out each phase of the sales cycle from sales lead to to actual installed customer.  Many times one can focus too narrowly and only look at a sales pipeline or customer conversion rate and spend too much time talking about the numbers – did we make or miss our quarter and did we grow our sales pipeline and by how much.  While those are always imperative to look at, it is also important to dig beneath the surface and understand how you got from Point A to Point B and deconstruct each step of the sales process, figuring out the time and resources it takes to move each prospect through the sales cycle and get them to become a customer.  As one of our marketing consultants, RIchard Currier, once said, one must look for the Big Boulders in the sales cycle, the point in the funnel where things seem to take too long or cost too much, and put programs in place to move them.  Once you map and understand what it takes to convert a lead to a go/no go decision, it will become quite apparent where you and your company will need to focus its efforts to maximize sales and marketing efficiency, move the boulders, and minimize sales friction.

For example, in one portfolio company, as we dug deeper into the sales funnel, we clearly saw that there were two distinct types of customers – one with a very short sales cycle with more do it yourself implementation and another set with a longer sales cycle.  The natural question you have to ask yourself is how do I put programs in place to reach the first group of sales prospects to increase my efficiency.  One other huge boulder we found was that sales pilots were taking too long to get started.  As we dissected the problem, we discovered that a large portion of this time sink was because it took too long for a customer to get the required hardware to run a pilot.  In order to reduce the friction, we brought in our own appliances to minimize the time to pilot and also mapped out a plan to run sales pilots in an on-demand fashion with no installation onsite at all.

In another company, the boulders that we discussed were less a sales targeting issue but more of an implementation issue.  While we had a great distribution deal with a partner, the conversion rates were not as high as we liked.  To move this boulder, we spent plenty of time discussing how we could get our customers to use our service with as little friction as possible – in other words, how to get a customer using our service with 1-2 clicks instead of 5 – 6.  This may sound trivial but trust me it is not.  Reducing the barrier to usage can make the diifference between a huge win or a mediocre effort.  This applies in both the enterprise and consumer world.  Once again, it is quite important to deconstruct your sales cycle and look for those huge boulders and put programs in place to move them to create a more streamlined process.

Back to the basics – more questions for entrepreneurs

On the heels of my earlier post on questions "entrepreneurs should ask themselves," I got a flurry of emails from readers about other points that I did not address.  Anyway, I strongly believe that we can sometimes get too enamored with our own technology and not do enough market assessment in the real world.  Later this week, we are actually going to have a strategy review at one of my portfolio companies and these are the questions we are asking ourselves:

  1. What is our unique value proposition to customers?  Is it truly unique and differentiated (come on-we need to be brutally honest with ourselves here)?  If not, how do we leverage our strengths to create a compelling value prop to customers?
  2. Who do we want to be when we grow up?  In this world, I strongly believe that one must put a stake in the ground and either go big, go niche, or go home.  Which one are we and why?
  3. Where is the market headed?  What are the opportunities – are we a leader or follower?  If we are a follower, how do we become a leader? 
  4. Given all of the above, what are we uniquely positioned to deliver given our strengths and weaknesses?  What are the biggest threats that keep our company from delivering?
  5. How are we going to reach that customer at the highest point of pain and in the most capital efficient manner?

As one of the entrepreneurs in the portfolio pointed out, some of these questions can be theoretical and murky and until you get a product out into the hands of customers or consumers, it may be hard to answer them.  My perspective is that yes this is true, but you need to have few of these basic questions covered before going into the market and then with the data take a step back and refresh, rethink, and reload.  In other words, you need to take market feedback to validate or invalidate some of your initial thinking and adapt.  I know these are all basic questions but you would be surprised at how many people come in and have not put their mind to some of these questions.

Techdirt Insight Community -Gerson Lehrman for the information age?

Mike Masnick of Techdirt has launched a new service called the "Techdirt Insight Community."  Mike is an active blogger but also has run a corporate intelligence service for awhile mining the web for customized news and insight tailored for your company (think competitive analysis, updates, reviews on your products, etc. – check out Jeff Nolan’s guest post on Venturebeat for more).  As I have always thought, there is a ton of information on the web and interesting models can revolve around not only information arbitrage but also labor arbitrage.  On the information arbitrage side, one company that has always intrigued me is Monitor 110, founded by long-time New York entrepreneur Jeff Stewart and run by Wall Street veteran Roger Ehrenberg.  Their thesis is that there is a ton of information on the web and if properly screened for credibitlity and delivered in real time in a way that investment professionals can use (think bloomberg like screens), then you could help investors generate better returns.  What Techdirt Insight Community reminds me of is Gerson Lehrman for the information age.  For those of you not in New York or familiar with the hedge fund industry, Gehrson Lehrman has come out of nowhere over the last 5 years to build a huge business and becoming a "must-have" for all hedge funds.  As you know, looking at leading indicators can be quite important to help make profitable investment decisions.  What Gerson Lehrman did was assemble a community of experts that hedge fund professionals could call to discuss industry outlooks, etc.  Gerson would get paid by the hedge fund and pay the professional, keeping a nice profit for itself.  It has built quite a network – 600 clients asking 11k questions per month with 150k experts on tap.  It seems like Mike is taking a page out of the Gerson book and applying it to the web, leveraging the experts out there (bloggers) and matching them up with companies that want specific insight on products, etc.  I think it is a brilliant move and another great way that bloggers can monetize their passion.

Questions entrepreneurs should ask themselves

Andy Sacks, CEO, of Judy’s Book has an excellent post of what simple questions management can ask themselves to assess their current state of play.  If you are an entrepreneur, I encourage reading his post and some of his follow up commentary (Andy’s questions below).

  1. What are the hardest problems in our current business approach – the market issues that we keep struggling with over and over?
  2. What’s (surprisingly) easy about our business – the things that are working better than expected?
  3. Where’s the parade?  What major trends are we trying to get in front of with our business?

What would our business look like If we:

  • Stopped trying to do what’s hard,
  • Did more of the things that are easy, and
  • Made sure we were in front of the biggest parade we can find?

I think all too often management can get bogged down into day to day details and it is extremely important to take a step back every once in awhile and think a little more strategically about what you are trying to accomplish, where you are going, and how you are going to do it.  It is hard to build a great company without answering these questions.  The beauty of Andy’s questions are that they are simple yet powerful.  This reminds me of the good old SWOT analysis where management looks critically at their company and themselves to assess their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats.  This is also a great discussion to have at the board level since having input from others who know your business quite well but are not involved in the daily hand-to-hand combat can be quite valuable.

Microsoft acquires portfolio company Colloquis

It is always great to see hard work rewarded.  Congratulations to Steve Klein, Pierre Berkaloff, and the rest of the Colloquis team (my partner Ned Carlson is on the board) for building the company over the last few years and making this happen.  For any startup there are always a few missteps along the way but being flexible and adapting to the market to find the right opportunity is key.  Colloquis did that in spades taking its bot and agent technology from an IM only platform to the web and creating a killer SAAS platform that enables any company to engage customers in typed natural language conversations, delivering answers to customers in real time.  Take a look at AskComcast (see comcast.net and top right corner is AskComcast) to see the technology live – customers who need help engage in an online chat with one of our automated agents giving the customer the feel of a live, real-time dialogue with a human while being powered by our natural language processing technology.  As Microsoft says in the press release today:

Xbox will be the first group within Microsoft to use Windows Live Service Agents. Colloquis technology will be a strong contributor in enabling Xbox® customers to rapidly find helpful information related to their support needs. The conversational tone and ease of use of the product will offer customers another approach with which to address commonly asked questions, providing quick resolution to customer issues. The product’s technical flexibility makes it an excellent fit with other self-service options that Xbox plans to release in the fall.

In addition, Microsoft plans to take advantage of Colloquis Internet bot technology in an application called Windows Live Agents, a conversational application that users can interact with via Windows Live Messenger. These “agents” are used to entertain, encourage engagement with products or services, provide a new advertising opportunity for brand advertisers, and drive search and information retrieval.

On the Windows Live Agents side, take a look at what can be done using Colloquis technology delivered over the Messenger platform.  According to the Microsoft site, think of a bot as an automated contact that can be added to your contact list and that you can converse with using text to deliver information, complete tasks, or be entertained.  I look forward to seeing how developers using this bot technology will tie together various web services and applications all through a simple buddy contact on your IM list.  On the current Windows Live Gallery page, you can see an Encarta bot, a map searcher bot which interacts with the Virtual Earth Map through an IM chat, and an InsideMessenger bot that "interacts with Amazon, finds flights in realtime, integrates with RSS feeds and soon will integrate with YouTube/MySpace video feeds."  I look forward to seeing Microsoft bring bots and automated agents into the mainstream.  I can’t think of a simpler way to interact with web services or initiate commands than through a simple text chat.